According to Forbes, private businesses and governments have already invested more than $55 billion in quantum computing. Practical applications that would enable businesses to leverage the technology, however, are virtually nonexistent as not many quantum computers even exist. So, what or how should businesses be thinking about the technology where we sit now as 2024 nears its end.

Applying quantum principles to computing was first conceptualized in the 1980s, first built in the late 1990s and, according to McKinsey, could generate more than a trillion dollars in value by 2035. Unlike traditional computers, which use binary bits—represented as zeroes or ones—to store and process information, quantum computers use quantum bits, called qubits, which can each hold a value of zero, one, or a simultaneous combination of the two states. That physical characteristic means quantum computers can solve some kinds of problems exponentially faster than classical computers.

Predictions about when quantum computing will be commercially available to solve business problems vary. Many experts say it can be measured in decades and some say they won’t provide a practical advantage for organizations ever. But the potential for some use cases is so compelling, leaders in some business verticals see value in at least planning for that future. But what plans make sense for what kinds of enterprises?

Tortoise or the Hare?

Because of the quantum nature of qubits, quantum computers can work much faster than classical computers, making them better for complex problems. Finance, energy and pharmaceuticals are industries that have been identified as likely to benefit from quantum computing. But how should other business verticals be thinking about the technology?

A recent report from MIT and University of Illinois researchers establishes a way for organizations to understand if it makes sense to invest in quantum computing given the business problem they are solving.

“Quantum computing promises transformational gains for solving some problems, but little to none for others,” wrote the authors of The Quantum Tortoise and the Classical Hare: A simple framework for understanding which problems quantum computing will accelerate (and which it won’t). “For anyone hoping to use quantum computers now or in the future, it is important to know which problems will benefit.”

The researchers characterize the framework they devised as a way to quantify the relative strengths of each type—classical computers operate faster, but take more steps to complete a task, while quantum computers can run more efficient algorithms so they can take a shorter route to a solution. It establishes a benchmark called quantum economic advantage that takes two conditions into account: feasibility and algorithmic advantage.

A problem is feasible, the research says, if a quantum computer is sufficiently powerful to actually run the problem. A problem has algorithmic advantage when a quantum computer is faster at calculating it than a comparably expensive classical computer. When both conditions are met, a quantum economic advantage exists.

But, while the framework provides a way for businesses to assess what kinds of problems are best solved with quantum computers, in the world as it currently exists, this is a theoretical exercise.

The report’s findings show that quantum computers will outpace classical computers when two things happen: there are significantly better quantum algorithms and the size of the problem being solved is sufficiently large. The latter finding is particularly important, they wrote in the report, because near-term quantum computers have limited computational capacity, making the need to run on a large problem synonymous with needing to wait longer for quantum computers to get powerful enough to tackle these problems.

“Think of it like a race in getting from point A to point B, and the algorithm is the route,” MIT researcher Neil Thompson said. “If the race is short, it might not be worth investing in better route planning. For it to be worth it, it has to be a longer race.”

Progress in quantum computing, according to McKinsey, is expected to remain slow. While more than 70 percent of tech executives, investors, and academics in quantum computing believe we’ll see a fully fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2035, the remaining third think this milestone won’t be reached until 2040 or later. But business leaders must at least be thinking about whether or not it can provide value, and when that might happen.